Nuclear Risks Rise in New Arms Race: SIPRI 2025 Yearbook

Published Date : 16/06/2025 

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) launches its 2025 Yearbook, revealing a dangerous new nuclear arms race as global arms control regimes weaken. The report highlights the growing nuclear arsenals and modernization efforts of major nuclear-armed states. 

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has released its annual assessment of the state of armaments, disarmament, and international security. The SIPRI Yearbook 2025 highlights a concerning trend: a new nuclear arms race is emerging at a time when arms control regimes are severely weakened.

Nearly all of the nine nuclear-armed states—the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—continued to intensify their nuclear modernization programs in 2024. These efforts involve upgrading existing weapons and introducing newer versions, signaling a shift away from the gradual dismantlement of nuclear arsenals that characterized the post-Cold War era.

As of January 2025, the global inventory of nuclear warheads is estimated at 12,241, with approximately 9,614 in military stockpiles for potential use. Of these, around 3,912 warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft, and about 2,100 were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles. Russia and the USA, which together possess around 90% of all nuclear weapons, have been the primary contributors to this trend.

Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme, warns, 'The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the Cold War, is coming to an end. Instead, we see a clear trend of growing nuclear arsenals, sharpened nuclear rhetoric, and the abandonment of arms control agreements.'

Russia and the USA, despite maintaining relatively stable military stockpiles in 2024, are implementing extensive modernization programs. The USA's program, however, faces planning and funding challenges that could delay and significantly increase the cost of the new strategic arsenal. The addition of new non-strategic nuclear weapons to the US arsenal will further strain the modernization effort.

Russia's modernization program has also encountered setbacks, including a test failure and delays in the deployment of the new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). However, both countries are likely to see an increase in deployed nuclear weapons in the coming years. Russia's increase will primarily come from modernizing its strategic forces to carry more warheads per missile and reloading previously emptied silos. The USA's increase could result from deploying more warheads to existing launchers, reactivating empty launchers, and adding new non-strategic nuclear weapons, driven by China's new nuclear deployments.

China's nuclear arsenal is growing faster than any other country's, with an estimated 600 warheads as of January 2025. China is constructing around 350 new ICBM silos in the north and east of the country, which could potentially match the number of ICBMs possessed by Russia or the USA by the end of the decade. Even if China reaches the projected 1,500 warheads by 2035, it will still amount to only about one-third of each of the current Russian and US nuclear stockpiles.

The United Kingdom, while not increasing its nuclear arsenal in 2024, is expected to expand its warhead stockpile in the future. The Labour government, elected in July 2024, has committed to building four new nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) and maintaining continuous at-sea nuclear deterrence. However, the government faces significant operational and financial challenges.

France continued its programs to develop a third-generation SSBN and a new air-launched cruise missile, as well as to refurbish and upgrade existing systems. India and Pakistan also continued to expand their nuclear arsenals and develop new delivery systems. Tensions between India and Pakistan briefly escalated into armed conflict in early 2025, highlighting the risks of conventional conflicts turning into nuclear crises.

North Korea continues to prioritize its nuclear program as a central element of its national security strategy. SIPRI estimates that North Korea has assembled around 50 warheads and possesses enough fissile material to produce up to 40 more. South Korean officials warned that North Korea is in the 'final stages' of developing a 'tactical nuclear weapon.'

Israel, which does not publicly acknowledge possessing nuclear weapons, is believed to be modernizing its nuclear arsenal. In 2024, Israel conducted a test of a missile propulsion system that could be related to its Jericho family of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and appears to be upgrading its plutonium production reactor site at Dimona.

In his introduction to the SIPRI Yearbook 2025, SIPRI Director Dan Smith warns about the challenges facing nuclear arms control and the prospects of a new nuclear arms race. Smith observes that 'bilateral nuclear arms control between Russia and the USA entered crisis some years ago and is now almost over.' The last remaining nuclear arms control treaty, New START, remains in force until early 2026, but there are no signs of negotiations to renew or replace it. US President Donald J. Trump has insisted that any future deal should also include limits on China's nuclear arsenal, adding a new layer of complexity to already difficult negotiations.

Smith also issues a stark warning about the risks of a new nuclear arms race: 'The signs are that a new arms race is gearing up that carries much more risk and uncertainty than the last one.' The rapid development and application of advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence, further complicate the security landscape and increase the potential for miscalculation and conflict. 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQS): 

Q: What is the SIPRI Yearbook 2025?

A: The SIPRI Yearbook 2025 is an annual assessment of the state of armaments, disarmament, and international security, published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). It provides detailed analysis and data on global security trends, including nuclear weapons and arms control.

Q: Which countries are the primary contributors to the new nuclear arms race?

A: The primary contributors to the new nuclear arms race are the United States and Russia, which together possess around 90% of all nuclear weapons. Both countries are implementing extensive modernization programs and are likely to see an increase in deployed nuclear weapons in the coming years.

Q: What is the estimated global inventory of nuclear warheads as of January 2025?

A: As of January 2025, the global inventory of nuclear warheads is estimated at 12,241, with approximately 9,614 in military stockpiles for potential use. Of these, around 3,912 warheads were deployed with missiles and aircraft, and about 2,100 were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles.

Q: How is China's nuclear arsenal growing?

A: China's nuclear arsenal is growing faster than any other country's, with an estimated 600 warheads as of January 2025. China is constructing around 350 new ICBM silos and is projected to have at least 1,500 warheads by 2035, although this would still amount to only about one-third of each of the current Russian and US nuclear stockpiles.

Q: What are the challenges facing nuclear arms control?

A: Nuclear arms control faces significant challenges, including the expiration of the New START treaty in 2026 without a clear path for renewal or replacement. The lack of bilateral arms control between Russia and the USA, the inclusion of China in future negotiations, and the rapid development of advanced technologies like artificial intelligence are all contributing to the risks and uncertainties of a new nuclear arms race. 

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