AI's Influence on Canada's Job Market

Published Date: 4/09/2024

A new study estimates that around 60% of employees in Canada could be exposed to AI-related job transformation, with highly educated employees being more likely to be affected.

The increasing integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into society and the economy has led to concerns about its impact on the labour market. Recent advances in AI have challenged prior conclusions that occupations involving routine and manual tasks are at higher risk of automation-related job transformation. This study provides experimental estimates of the number and percentage of workers in Canada potentially susceptible to AI-related job transformation.

The study adopts the complementarity-adjusted AI occupational exposure index of Pizzinelli et al. (2023), inspired by Felten, Raj and Seamans (2021). Results from the 2016 and 2021 censuses of population suggest that, on average, about 60% of employees in Canada could be exposed to AI-related job transformation, and about half of this group are in jobs that may be highly complementary with AI.

Unlike previous waves of automation, which mainly transformed the jobs of less educated employees, AI is more likely to transform the jobs of highly educated employees. Despite facing potentially higher exposure to AI-related job transformation, highly educated employees may be in jobs that could benefit from AI technologies.

Compared with employees in other industries, exposure to AI-related job transformation is higher for employees in professional, scientific and technical services; finance and insurance; information and cultural industries; educational services; and health care and social assistance. However, education and health care professionals are more likely to be in jobs that are highly complementary with AI.

Employees in industries such as construction, and accommodation and food services face relatively lower exposure to AI-related job transformation. Whether occupations that may benefit from AI will experience relatively higher employment and wage growth remains to be seen, as this depends on factors such as firm productivity and the ability of workers in those occupations to leverage the potential benefits of AI.

The experimental AI exposure estimates in this study are largely based on the technological feasibility of automating job tasks. Employers may not immediately replace humans with AI, even if it is technologically feasible, for several reasons, including financial, legal and institutional factors.

Consequently, exposure to AI does not necessarily imply a risk of job loss. At the very least, it could imply some degree of job transformation (Frenette and Frank, 2020). AI could lead to the creation of new tasks within existing jobs or create entirely new jobs.

Some economists argue that the risks and benefits of AI may be exaggerated (Acemoglu and Johnson, 2024; McElheran et al., 2024), and productivity increases at the macroeconomic level may be modest at best (Acemoglu, 2024).

The study's findings have implications for policymakers, educators, and employers. As AI continues to evolve, it is essential to invest in education and training programs that prepare workers for the changing job market.

In conclusion, this study provides new insights into the potential impact of AI on the Canadian labour market. While there are risks associated with AI, there are also opportunities for growth and innovation.

Statistics Canada is a Canadian government agency responsible for collecting and analyzing data on the country's population, economy, and society. The agency's mission is to provide high-quality data and statistics to support informed decision-makingOpenAI is a research organization that aims to promote and develop friendly AI in a way that benefits humanity as a whole. The organization is known for its development of large language models such as ChatGPT.

FAQS:

Q  What is the main finding of the study?

A  The study estimates that around 60% of employees in Canada could be exposed to AI-related job transformation.

Q  Which industries are most likely to be affected by AI?

A  Professional, scientific and technical services; finance and insurance; information and cultural industries; educational services; and health care and social assistance.

Q  What is the complementarity-adjusted AI occupational exposure index?

A  The index attempts to account for the potential complementarity of AI across occupations, in addition to direct exposure.

Q  What are the implications of the study's findings?

A  The findings have implications for policymakers, educators, and employers, highlighting the need to invest in education and training programs that prepare workers for the changing job market.

Q  What is the difference between narrow and general AI?

A  Narrow AI refers to computer software that relies on highly sophisticated algorithmic techniques to find patterns in data and make predictions about the future, while general AI refers to computer software that can think and act autonomously and is combined with automation and robot technologies.

More Topics :