AI's Role in Future Air Combat

Published Date : 5/10/2025 

At Eglin Air Force Base in Florida, a new kind of air force is being tested, where AI-piloted drones work alongside human pilots. This 'Top Gun AI' is changing the face of aerial combat. 

At Eglin Air Force Base in Florida, a test bed for a new kind of air force, Major Trent McMullen is a fighter pilot learning to fly alongside the XQ-58, a drone piloted by artificial intelligence. Think of this as 'Top Gun AI.'

'I've flown safety chase on it for several missions, messaging back and forth with the autonomy on board,' said McMullen. Maneuvering alongside an AI-piloted drone, he said, takes a bit of getting used to: 'As humans, we fly very smooth, but it can roll and fly a little bit snappier than maybe a human pilot would,' McMullen acknowledged. 'It could be a little bit rougher a ride, but there's no human on board.'

Artificial intelligence is on board, and now it is learning how to fight. McMullen said the tasks assigned to AI might be to intercept an adversary aircraft: 'So, we've been able to give it some of the basic blocking and tackling of air combat that we as human pilots also train on when we're first learning how to fly,' he said.

The XQ-58 blasts off like a rocket, but a full-scale model took off from a runway for the first time in August. General Adrian Spain, head of Air Combat Command, is drawing up plans for operating AI-piloted drones alongside manned aircraft. 'You've told them to go out in front and to execute an attack on a complex set of targets, and they will do that,' Spain said. He says AI drones are capable of doing that today – and those drones could be armed with weapons.

An AI-piloted F-16 has already held its own in a limited dogfight against an experienced fighter pilot. At Top Gun AI, other F-16s are being rewired for more realistic combat. Those aircraft still have a cockpit, and a pilot, who can engage the plug-and-play AI system, and then remain on board as a safety pilot.

'So, once the AI goes on, the hands come off?' I asked. 'Yep, they'll be monitoring the system and ready to take over at a moment's notice,' McMullen said. 'But we'll also have real live aircraft out there for it to fight against. Those jets will be piloted by real fighter pilots trying their best to outsmart the AI.'

So, are we witnessing a revolution? 'If we continue down this path, it has the potential to be a revolution,' said Spain. Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Clint Hinote says it is a revolution born of necessity: 'The Air Force was so good for so long that it didn't need to change. Now it needs to change, and it's trying to figure out how.'

Change because the Chinese air force, which recently showcased its newest jet fighters and its own AI drone, could be more than a match for the U.S. Air Force. According to Hinote, 'If we have to fight China, we're likely doing it in their front yard, and that means they can bring many, many more things to bear than we can, because it's so far away. You're having to achieve kill ratios of 10 to 1, 15 to 1, and 20 to 1 to even stay in the game.'

I asked, 'How do these war games come out when American pilots are going up against 20 to 1 odds?' 'The war games don't turn out very well,' Hinote replied. 'We lose.' The Air Force is counting on AI drones to even the odds, by bringing to an aircraft what a human pilot doesn't. McMullen said, 'The big thing with artificial intelligence is the ability to handle large amounts of data. A human out in a complex air combat environment, there's just no way to absorb all of it. Artificial intelligence might be able to take all of the data information, and then process that very quickly, and then make real-time decisions.'

AI drones will be about half the length of a manned jet fighter, and one-quarter the cost – $20 to 30 million each. Hinote said, 'You could buy more airplanes, put them in the field, and still not break the bank. The key would be that you don't have to bring the human operator home; you actually can take more risk.' Spain says the Air Force expects to have 150 AI-piloted aircraft by the end of the decade, and eventually up to 1,000.

I asked, 'These drones aren't just going to sit in a hangar waiting for war with China. What are they going to do in peacetime?' 'It's pretty wide open,' Spain replied. 'Could you send up AI drones to intercept those Russian bombers that come down off the coast of Alaska?' 'Yes, you could do that,' he said. Those intercepts can turn nasty in an instant. Last year a Russian fighter rocked an American F-16, so AI drones would have to be prepared to shoot.

So, is AI going to be making life-or-death decisions? 'Absolutely not,' said Spain. 'Absolutely not. The human who's controlling the AI will make the life-and-death decisions.' At least for now. Hinote said, 'Increasingly militaries around the world, including the United States military, are going to be pressured to give the machines more leeway in making those life-or-death decisions.'

Including the capability to fire on their own? 'The United States military is investing in the experimentation that you would need to be able to produce the types of platforms that could fire on their own if you gave them that option,' Hinote said. If adversaries let AI make those decisions, what happens? 'If adversaries let AI make those decisions, it could lead to a new era of autonomous warfare, where machines are making critical combat decisions,' Hinote concluded. 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQS): 

Q: What is the XQ-58?

A: The XQ-58 is an AI-piloted drone being tested by the U.S. Air Force at Eglin Air Force Base in Florida. It is designed to work alongside human pilots and can perform complex air combat tasks.

Q: How does AI enhance air combat?

A: AI enhances air combat by handling large amounts of data and making real-time decisions, which human pilots might find difficult to manage in complex environments. This allows for more efficient and effective combat operations.

Q: What are the potential risks of using AI in military operations?

A: The potential risks of using AI in military operations include the possibility of malfunction, the ethical implications of machines making life-or-death decisions, and the potential for adversaries to exploit vulnerabilities in AI systems.

Q: How is the U.S. Air Force preparing for the use of AI drones?

A: The U.S. Air Force is preparing by testing AI drones in various scenarios, training pilots to work alongside these drones, and developing new strategies and tactics to integrate AI into air combat operations.

Q: What is the current stance of the U.S. military on AI making life-or-death decisions?

A: Currently, the U.S. military insists that AI will not make life-or-death decisions on its own. Human operators will retain control over critical combat decisions, although there is pressure to give machines more leeway in the future. 

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