US Job Market Steady Despite AI Growth, Yale Finds

Published Date : 2/10/2025 

A recent study by Yale University's Budget Lab indicates that the US jobs market has not experienced significant disruption from AI technologies, including ChatGPT, since its release in 2022. 

The US jobs market has yet to experience serious disruption from breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, according to an academic study. Analysis by Yale University’s Budget Lab found there had been no “discernible disruption” since ChatGPT’s release in November 2022.

Researchers said its conclusion was not surprising because historical trends pointed to technological upheaval in workforces taking place over decades rather than months or years. “Computers didn’t become commonplace in offices until nearly a decade after their release to the public, and it took even longer for them to transform office workflows,” said the study. “Even if new AI technologies will go on to impact the labour market as much, or more, dramatically, it is reasonable to expect that widespread effects will take longer than 33 months to materialise.”

The study said changes in the occupational mix in the US – a measure of what sort of jobs people do in the world’s biggest economy and whether fewer people are in certain types of occupations – were well under way during 2021 and more recent changes did not seem any more pronounced. It added that the changes were “sluggish” compared with the 1940s and 50s when the jobs market underwent upheaval related to the second world war in particular.

A key concern about the rise of generative artificial intelligence is that it will lead to AI tools taking over tasks carried out by humans in certain sectors, effectively making their jobs redundant and triggering widespread job losses. In May, the chief executive of the AI company Anthropic, Dario Amodei, warned that the technology could wipe out half of all entry-level office jobs in the next five years.

Sectors most likely to be affected by tools such as ChatGPT include newspapers, film-making, and business services like accountancy. These were already showing changes in occupational mix before the release of the groundbreaking chatbot, said the report. The analysis by economists at the Budget Lab and the Brookings Institute, a thinktank, said the US jobs mix indicated there was “no substantial acceleration in the rate of change in the composition of the labour market since the introduction of ChatGPT”.

However, the report flagged some recent data that showed a divergence between the jobs mix for recent graduates and older graduates aged 25-34. It said the data could show AI impacting employment for early career workers but could also reflect a slowing jobs market. “While anxiety over the effects of AI on today’s labour market is widespread, our data suggests it remains largely speculative,” said the report. “The picture of AI’s impact on the labour market that emerges from our data is one that largely reflects stability, not major disruption at an economy-wide level.”

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQS): 

Q: What did the Yale University study find about AI's impact on the US jobs market?

A: The study found no discernible disruption in the US jobs market since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022. The changes in the occupational mix were sluggish compared to historical trends.

Q: How long does it typically take for new technologies to significantly impact the workforce?

A: Historical trends show that technological upheaval in workforces takes place over decades rather than months or years. For example, computers took nearly a decade to become commonplace in offices after their release to the public.

Q: Which sectors are most likely to be affected by AI tools like ChatGPT?

A: Sectors most likely to be affected by AI tools like ChatGPT include newspapers, film-making, and business services like accountancy. These sectors were already showing changes in occupational mix before the release of ChatGPT.

Q: What are the concerns about the rise of generative AI in the job market?

A: A key concern is that generative AI tools could take over tasks carried out by humans, making certain jobs redundant and leading to widespread job losses. Some experts predict significant job losses, especially in entry-level office jobs.

Q: What does the report suggest about the current state of AI's impact on the job market?

A: The report suggests that while there is widespread anxiety about the effects of AI on the job market, the data currently shows stability rather than major disruption at an economy-wide level. 

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