AI: The Latest Geopolitical Frontier

Published Date : 30/06/2025 

In the post-COVID-19 era, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a critical tool reshaping global power dynamics. From diplomacy to military strategy, AI is transforming how nations interact and compete on the international stage. 

In the post-COVID-19 era, artificial intelligence (AI) has become a ubiquitous term in public discourse. According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, AI is defined as 'the capability of computer systems or algorithms to imitate intelligent human behavior.' This technology, though not new, has seen significant advancements since its inception in 1956 at a scientific conference in Dartmouth. Today, AI is widely used in various fields, including the military, medicine, robotics, and education.

Over time, AI has advanced considerably. Ordinary people worldwide now have access to basic smart computer models, but it is widely believed that the centers of global power—national governments, intelligence agencies, and various organizations—possess models that are years ahead of what is publicly available.

### An Indispensable Tool of Our Time

Many analysts warn that AI will replace and subordinate human beings. However, this claim is highly debatable. AI is not a superior 'divine' entity but a technology created by humans with all their imperfections. Similar fears were expressed during the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century, but they did not materialize. It is unlikely that AI will replace humans either. However, individuals and nations that do not use AI tools will struggle to keep up with those who do. In the international political arena, states, multilateral organizations, and movements that utilize AI will remain competitive, while those that do not will stagnate and decline.

According to S&P Global, between 2013 and 2023, 5,509 AI companies were founded in the United States, with total private investments reaching approximately $335.2 billion. During the same period, China saw the establishment of 1,446 AI companies, with private investments amounting to about $103.7 billion.

### Political Leaders Recognize a New Weapon

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in 2017, 'Artificial intelligence is the future, not only for Russia but for all of humanity.' He added that AI carries enormous opportunities but also threats that are difficult to foresee, noting that whoever becomes the leader in this field will become the ruler of the world.

In December 2017, Donald Trump signed a new National Security Strategy emphasizing the importance of artificial intelligence for the national security and economic development of the United States. The strategy states that 'continued American leadership in artificial intelligence is of utmost importance for preserving the economic and national security of the United States.' During the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in October 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that China must accelerate achieving a high level of scientific and technological self-reliance and improvement, clearly referring to AI.

### A Game-Changer in Geopolitics

Artificial intelligence is a tool reshaping geopolitics on a multidimensional level. This is not a conventional change but a revolutionary one. AI could significantly alter the way we understand international relations and diplomacy today. The sooner policymakers realize this, the better. Although diplomacy belongs to the social sciences and humanities, AI introduces mathematical models into diplomacy, often described as the 'technologization of diplomacy.' In geopolitical terms, AI's use is most important in two interconnected areas: diplomacy and national security. Put simply, AI is a crucial diplomatic and military-security tool.

### A Modern Diplomatic Instrument

AI is transforming the conduct of bilateral and multilateral relations. National governments and leading commissions in organizations such as the UN, EU, and BRICS are actively using smart technology—from basic real-time translations to the creation of complex analyses. Diplomats can communicate more easily with their colleagues thanks to AI, receiving instant translations and real-time suggestions from virtual assistants.

AI can facilitate diplomatic negotiations between two or more countries by analyzing historical relationships, proposing new strategies for improving relations, and offering guidance on negotiation styles. Diplomats and politicians are often unimaginative and unable to grasp new ideas. However, many of today’s political disputes also existed in the past. AI can compare historical and current contexts and offer constructive proposals. Beyond negotiation content, outcomes are influenced by style. If the style is wrong (too assertive or too timid), the outcome may be negative even if the idea itself is good.

Based on available data (public opinion, military deployments, leaders’ behavior), AI programs can predict the early onset of crises and wars. AI can recommend which countries should receive peacekeeping missions before a crisis erupts or where peacekeepers should be withdrawn. Similarly, governments can use computer models to present diplomatic negotiations and agreements to the public in a more acceptable way to ensure support. Politics is about perception, and political results can often be interpreted both as victories and defeats.

### A Military-Security Tool

AI is becoming a key military tool for many powerful states and organizations. The United States uses AI to develop autonomous drones, defend against cyberattacks, and analyze military intelligence. China applies AI in mass surveillance systems, facial recognition, and unmanned technology. Russia uses AI for cyber defense, automating military systems such as drones, analyzing satellite and intelligence data, and electronic warfare. Israel employs AI in several key military systems, the most famous being the 'Iron Dome.' AI helps rapidly detect and intercept threats such as rockets and mortar shells.

NATO uses AI to forecast conflicts, protect communication networks, manage logistics, and optimize military operations. All mentioned countries also use AI for cyber warfare (targeting infrastructure of other nations and spreading propaganda) and to protect against foreign cyberattacks. Organizations like the U.S. DARPA and China’s AI Institute are developing advanced military systems. The use of AI can offer advantages on the battlefield but also increases the risk of conflict escalation. Therefore, there is a growing need for international rules and oversight on AI in the military sector.

### The Race to Develop AI for Geopolitical Purposes

All significant global powers have realized that a race is underway to develop artificial intelligence for political purposes. American companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are developing computer models to help the U.S. maintain its status as the world’s most powerful country and to preserve organizations such as NATO, the G7, OAS, IMF, and the World Bank. The Chinese are using AI to advance their Belt and Road Initiative. The Digital Silk Road accompanies this initiative, focusing on the development of digital infrastructure, technology, and internet networks wherever the Belt and Road passes (Asia, Africa, Europe). China aims to establish itself as the world’s new technological leader.

Russia primarily develops AI tools for propaganda purposes, subtly reshaping the narrative that is unfavorable to them in parts of the world (the EU and the U.S.). The European Union seeks to position itself as a leader in ethical AI use, promoting a global framework for moral application. BRICS countries like India, Brazil, and South Africa place less emphasis on ethics, using AI mainly to develop their economies and redefine global power structures that limit their growth.

### Conclusion

Thanks to the development of advanced analytical tools and predictive algorithms, artificial intelligence has been widely used in international relations and diplomacy since the 2010s. Because of its advantages—such as precise data processing and rapid solution proposals—AI has become an indispensable tool in modern diplomacy. However, when, how much, and in what way it will be used depends on people—the decision-makers. AI is a mathematical model with its own shortcomings and requires skilled experts to be used appropriately. The risks are significant. 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQS): 

Q: What is artificial intelligence (AI)?

A: Artificial intelligence (AI) is the capability of computer systems or algorithms to imitate intelligent human behavior. It involves tasks such as learning, reasoning, and self-correction.

Q: How is AI used in international relations?

A: AI is used in international relations to analyze data, predict crises, facilitate diplomatic negotiations, and enhance communication between nations. It also plays a role in military and security operations.

Q: What are the potential risks of AI in geopolitics?

A: The risks of AI in geopolitics include the potential for conflict escalation, ethical concerns, and the need for international rules and oversight to ensure responsible use.

Q: Which countries are leading in AI development?

A: The United States, China, and Russia are leading in AI development. These countries are investing heavily in AI for both civilian and military applications.

Q: How is AI changing the way diplomacy is conducted?

A: AI is changing diplomacy by providing real-time translations, facilitating negotiations, and offering data-driven insights to help diplomats make informed decisions. It also aids in predicting and preventing crises. 

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