IBM, NASA Launch Open-Source AI for Solar Weather Prediction on Hugging Fac

Published Date : 21/08/2025 

IBM and NASA have unveiled Surya, an advanced open-source AI model on Hugging Face, designed to predict solar weather and protect critical technology on Earth and in space. This groundbreaking model leverages high-resolution solar observation data to enhance space weather forecasting. 

IBM and NASA have announced the release of Surya, a groundbreaking open-source AI model available on Hugging Face. Surya, named for the Sanskrit word for the Sun, is designed to interpret high-resolution solar observation data and predict solar activity, which can significantly impact Earth and space-based technology. This model represents a significant advancement in applying AI to solar image interpretation and space weather forecasting research, providing a powerful tool to help protect everything from GPS navigation to power grids to telecommunications from the Sun's dynamic nature.

The Sun, despite being 93 million miles away, has a direct and growing impact on modern life. Solar flares and coronal mass ejections can knock out satellites, disrupt airline navigation, trigger power blackouts, and pose serious radiation risks to astronauts. With humanity's increasing dependence on space-based technology and plans for deeper space exploration, accurate solar weather prediction has become critical.

According to a systemic risk scenario created by Lloyd's, the global economy could be exposed to losses of $2.4 trillion over a five-year period, with the expected loss of $17 billion from the threat of a hypothetical solar storm. Recent solar events have already demonstrated the risk, disrupting GPS services, forcing flight diversions, and damaging satellites. The effects of solar storms can cause:

- Damage to satellites, spacecraft, and astronauts stationed beyond Earth

- Loss of satellite hardware, damaging solar panels and circuits

- Impact on airline travel, due to navigational errors and potential radiation risks for airline crew and passengers

- Lowered food production as agriculture can be impacted by disrupted GPS navigation

The implications include both academic research and operational preparedness. The new model will provide tools to help experts plan for solar storms, which can disrupt the Earth's technological infrastructure.

“Think of this as a weather forecast for space,” said Juan Bernabe-Moreno, Director of IBM Research Europe, UK, and Ireland. “Just as we work to prepare for hazardous weather events, we need to do the same for solar storms. Surya gives us unprecedented capability to anticipate what's coming and is not just a technological achievement, but a critical step toward protecting our technological civilization from the star that sustains us.”

Traditional solar weather prediction relies on partial satellite views of the Sun's surface, making accurate forecasting extremely difficult. Surya addresses this limitation by training on the largest curated high-resolution heliophysics dataset. This dataset is designed to help researchers better study and evaluate critical space weather prediction tasks. Examples of these tasks, which Surya has been tested on, include predicting solar flares, the speed of solar winds, solar EUV spectra prediction, and the emergence of active regions on the Sun.

In early testing, researchers report achieving a 16 percent improvement in solar flare classification accuracy, a very substantial improvement compared to previous methods. In addition to the binary solar flare classification task, Surya is built to visually predict solar flares for the first time, providing a high-resolution image of where the flare is predicted to occur up to two hours out.

The technical challenges were immense. Surya was trained on nine years of high-resolution solar observation data from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory. These solar images are 10 times larger than typical AI training data, requiring a custom multi-architecture solution to handle the massive scale while maintaining efficiency. The result is a model with unprecedented spatial resolution that can resolve solar features at scales and contexts not previously captured in large-scale AI training workflows.

“We are advancing data-driven science by embedding NASA's deep scientific expertise into cutting-edge AI models,” said Kevin Murphy, chief science data officer at NASA Headquarters in Washington. “By developing a foundation model trained on NASA's heliophysics data, we're making it easier to analyze the complexities of the Sun's behavior with unprecedented speed and precision. This model empowers broader understanding of how solar activity impacts critical systems and technologies that we all rely on here on Earth.”

Surya is part of a broader effort at IBM to embrace generative and automated approaches that empower algorithms to be discovered, tested, and evolved at scale. Surya is one example of how IBM is positioning AI not just as a tool, but as a driver of scientific discovery. By releasing Surya on Hugging Face, IBM and NASA are democratizing access to advanced tools for understanding and forecasting solar weather and scientific exploration. Researchers worldwide can now build upon this foundation to develop specialized applications for their regions and industries.

This model is part of a larger collaboration between IBM and NASA to use AI technology to explore our planet and solar system. It joins the Prithvi family of foundation models, which includes a geospatial model and a weather model. Last year, IBM and NASA released the Prithvi weather model on Hugging Face for scientists and the broader community to develop short- and long-term weather and climate projections.

About IBM

IBM is a leading provider of global hybrid cloud and AI, and consulting expertise. We help clients in more than 175 countries capitalize on insights from their data, streamline business processes, reduce costs, and gain the competitive edge in their industries. Thousands of government and corporate entities in critical infrastructure areas such as financial services, telecommunications, and healthcare rely on IBM's hybrid cloud platform and Red Hat OpenShift to effect their digital transformations quickly, efficiently, and securely. IBM's breakthrough innovations in AI, quantum computing, industry-specific cloud solutions, and consulting deliver open and flexible options to our clients. All of this is backed by IBM's long-standing commitment to trust, transparency, responsibility, inclusivity, and service. 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQS): 

Q: What is Surya and how does it work?

A: Surya is an advanced open-source AI model developed by IBM and NASA. It is trained on high-resolution solar observation data to predict solar weather, including solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and other solar activities. Surya provides high-resolution images and predictions to help protect Earth and space-based technology from solar disturbances.

Q: Why is accurate solar weather prediction important?

A: Accurate solar weather prediction is crucial because solar events like solar flares and coronal mass ejections can disrupt GPS services, cause power blackouts, damage satellites, and pose radiation risks to astronauts. With increasing dependence on space-based technology, precise forecasting helps in planning and mitigating these risks.

Q: How does Surya improve solar weather prediction?

A: Surya improves solar weather prediction by achieving a 16 percent improvement in solar flare classification accuracy compared to previous methods. It also provides high-resolution images of where solar flares are predicted to occur, up to two hours in advance, which is a significant advancement in the field.

Q: What data does Surya use for training?

A: Surya is trained on the largest curated high-resolution heliophysics dataset, which includes nine years of solar observation data from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory. This dataset helps researchers better study and evaluate critical space weather prediction tasks.

Q: How can researchers access and use Surya?

A: Surya is openly available on Hugging Face, a platform for AI models. Researchers worldwide can access and build upon this foundation to develop specialized applications for their regions and industries, advancing the field of heliophysics and space weather research. 

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